Originally published at: No Prebuy Surge: Trump Admin Scraps Costly Truck Regulations - FreightWaves
A potential truck buying surge in anticipation of stricter emissions rules has been canceled.
This is great for Wabash National. Fleets were already pre-buying ; slanting purchase towards tractors & away from trailers; to fund pre-buy. I expect Wabash, who is down 60% share price y/yâŚâŚ to reverse this, starting now. Gr8 time to buy Wabash shares.
BTW, Craig . Do an article about Wabash / tariffs. They are The only OEM to already use steel from the US. Their âDura Plateâ walls have always been made here too; so zero exposure to tariffs; unlike the other OEMâs; who import their steel & wall panels. Huge competitive advantage for Wabash; which is a nice reward for doing the right thing. Trump needs to undo Russia oil sanctions for hot Econ. This is coming; IMO the Russia / Saudiâs /Trump alliance = lots of cheap energy; which I predicted would have already happened. Slight lag. Maybe one more month. Then, HOT trucking etc. Especially with tariffs. This cheap, globe flooding energy would offset tariffs.
Interesting comments re: the fact that trailer purchases were put on hold due to fleet capital allocation. That makes complete sense.
I suspect the industry will try to keep capital investments small until the industry has more clarity around tariffs & the economy.
I think weâre close. âThe streetâ senses same. I track Schneiderâs used trailer prices; theyâve recently started going back UP. Same for Knight/Swift used; almost all used inventory has recently been bought. Schneiderâs 2014 vans were $11,000; for the last couple months. Now, same trailers $11,500. The legacy fleets will balance back toward trailers; now that âpre-buyâ for tractors is no longer needed nor smart. Legacy fleets have to cater to the â10 years old or newerâ rule that many auto parts shippers & receivers mandate, for trailers; and MANY of their loads are auto parts; of course. Iâd guess many legacy fleets have many 12 year old trailers, due to tractor pre-buy funding. Those 2014 vans that Schneider is selling; are actually made in 2013; so they are 12 years old now. The â10 year or newerâ rule goes by date of mfg, on trailer nose, and not title year. Many loads under this rule; not just auto parts. Food grade, etc. So. fleets like Schneider, Kight-Swift, that historically sold trailers when 10 years old; will now be selling these 11 and 12 year old trailers; and ordering more NEW; from Wabash, etc. Schneider, etc can buy 4-5 trailers for every pre-buy tractor order that is now discarded.
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Thats interesting. I assume you track this for equity research purposes?
No, Iâm just as small carrier; so I track prices for my own business decisions; purchasing strategies. I used to comment on FW under âJames Bauman dba Kirplopus MC 895097.â Glad to see comments back open! I had run short -sell ontion on Wabash; when I knew thier #'s would crash; maybe 6 mo ago. Made 4X via puts. But now, I would buy Wabash. esp "call " options, now. IMO thier stock will go right back up; almost as fast as it fell; especially since they are âmade in USAâ almost everything; and exempt from the tariffs that I love. I think Trumpâs tariffs will create, like a bad weather event, a massive spike in trucking demand. Picture all the trucks used to build the new âmade in USAâ factories such as Honda or computer chips. This is happening; and the street knows it. But for red hot growth; we need sanctions on Russia dropped. Cheap energy = deflation = rate cuts = housing boom, etc. Those sanctions have only hurt the US, Germany, etc⌠and catipulted BRICS (which means China).
BTW, Q1 reports will be abysmal ; guessing youâre already hearing. But they are false alarm; due to above. This is the âlowâ time to buy JBH, etc. Itâs even lower than when JBH CFO bought lots of shares, last year!
Lastly, for now: Trump went to Wharton. Wharton recently said tariffs would be net negative to US. But Wharton is wrong; as they did not add in the cheap fuel (deflation) that Trump will soon have. IMO these schools teach what the âdeep stateâ wants us to do! And Trump is above this. Just watch; weâll have an incredible economy; even though short term recession possible. Very short term, if any, recession .
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I think tariffs on China are positive.
I am concerned about the tariffs on Mexico and Canada, largely because a large percentage of US manufacturing depends on our neighbors for source materials. I wish Trump would focus all of his attention on China, which is generally very positive.
Yes, but China trans-ships through these. Thatâs why the blanket 25% steel / aluminum tariffs; but also same for âde minimus.â These de minimis shipments; once de minimis is blocked (from China); China will transship these via Mexico, Canada, etc. Keep in mind; the âsmall parcelâ de minimis, once blocked; adds not JUST the additional 10% tariffs vs China; but all the other tariffs / antidumping duties. Weâre talking 43%! It is no coincidence that, once Trump hit Mexico, they now have thier own scrapping of de minimis from China.
Indeed, without a doubt.
No easy answers here⌠But I worry about the off and on tariffs causing more confusion than clarity.
I think this is part of Trumpâs game. One thing thatâs not confusing: make it here; and no tariffs. But we were a much stronger, better country pre NAFTA and China WTO. I like the idea of using tariffs to fund the US; and therefore no/low personal income taxes; OR coporate taxes. This would be a HUGE competitive advantage to US mfg. No corporate taxes. Many countries partly due exactly this via VAT tax; which means less corporate tax AND subsidies funded to cheat; the way Daimler was caught vastly subsidizing illegally .
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Im 99% with you on that, especially long term.
Disagree with Trump on Canada/Mexico and the confusing back-forth, but very positive about the long term implications.
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I think the MX tariffs have lots to do with China; again. China was gonna build the worldâs largest car plant, in MX; and sell those here. Of course; the parts would have been imported from China - to Mexico. BYD company. Not sure how much âmade in Chinaâ is transshipped via Canada; but guessing this is large reason why tariffs. China said its BYD plant in MX would create 10,000 jobs. But then what happens to our jobs? Gone. I think Trump would wait until China spent $Bâs on that plant in MX; and then hit its exports to us with 100% tariff. Trump actually said that; which IS uncertainty. I donât see any news source advertising the continuation of BYD plant. Theyâll wait Trump out; so we need to continue this protectionism; next President.
Craig, MUST WATCH. totally agree & LOVE Lighthizer. Top 1% er intelligence. What they donât teach @ Wharton, etc: (keep in mind trade imbalance with Mexico , Canada; not just China). You would never have a more impressive presenter at your F3, etc. iMO bring him (have Robert Lighthizer as one or your presenters). Off the charts intelligence. Just released video from today! I already knew. BTW Lighthizer could help you create a VERT predictive SONAR; with strategic (atypical) data inputs vs typical . Global energy prices, for example, NEED to be input; as our oil producers sell globally (and therefore love current sanctions that are actually net negative for US). If Trump can get Putin & MBS to flood globe with cheap oil? Thatâs day 1 of trucking recovery. Oil Prices will fall due to declining demand; that wonât help economy. JUST like plane that falls in stall: need to drive energy prices down intentionally; not cause-ally, for Econ reboot.Have to drive energy lower than lows caused by lack of demand; for FAST Econ recovery. Yoke full fwd, full power, oil production will overcome inflation & allow rate cuts. Off topic but relates.
To all those tariff gloom/ doomers; who say we pay all the tariffs: wrong. https://www.axios.com/2025/03/12/trump-tariffs-walmart-china
Craig; you aware of âThe Great Takingâ? Recent fight TN state legislature: See below. But watch âThe Great Takingâ David Rogers Webb via Youtibe first. Canât post 2 links; so look it up! DTC/ DTCC, creations via CIA, can seize all stocks, loan collateral, etc. watch âThe Grest Takingâ first, then below. Very important in current Econ. Own stuff outright, or possibly lose it in next , engineered, Grest Depression 2.0
The FED could print $ and give to same CIA fake entities that would âbuyâ JBH, etc stocks to give false confidence/ guidance. (Market Manipulation )Now that Musk can see FED money flows; even the âoff books?â False buyers gone! No artificial market manipulation, currently. THATâs why, IMO, we see JBH, etc, so low. Muskâs team can ID.all $ creation; even off books. Off books $ creation = on books, real, inflation. Car batteries that were $60 ten years ago now $200. Quart of oil that used to be $2 now $7. LOTS of current âhouse buyingâ offers. Ours paid full. Youâd be a FOOL to do that & start new mortgage; as this property now âtakeable.â but old, paid-in-full? Not takeable.
Why , currently, would âAssociation Of American Law Schoolsâ take up fight for protected class? Trying to stop states from reverting section 8 of UCC back to 1994; removing the exceptions. Look up âThe Baseless Attack on UCC Article 8.â But THEN look at David Webbâs refute. Lawyers are intentionally ignoring the âexceptionsâ to property rights that states like TN are trying to remove. David Webb; TN; several states just want the exceptions, added in 1994, all states, to be removed. This is when derivatives bubble exploded & still NOT backed. Craig; if you think Iâm crazy, PLEASE contact these TN state legislators; both R &D; ID in link below. Ask. BTW lots of banks, etc that think they are in âprotected classâ are not. Only the very top of FED = protected; such as JPM. Every bank below this chainâŚ.not protected. Consider that The Fed, which is a PRIVATE entity (not govâr) was created before the first Great Depression (asset seizure). THIS is partly why gold is so high; over $3k/ oz. Gold has always been safe; except the US govât seized it from individuals during last Great Depression. Yes they did . JPM = âprotected classâ but donât think that if you are a customer in JPM chain, that you are protected. You are not. Scroll to exception C below link! Thatâs the asset-seizing mechanism. This exception is still on books , in every stateâs UCC; since 1994.